I’ve spent quite a bit of time on this, so hopefully it’ll help you in your PPR fantasy draft. For better or worse, this is how I currently rank the top 100 NFL players for fantasy value in a PPR league.
Lots of things are taken into account here, but there are quite a few unknowns at this point. For example, take Brandon Marshall. (Please!) Today the Bronco’s announced that he’s suspended for the 2 remaining pre-season games, so I have no clue how to rank him. He’s definitely has less fantasy value today than he did yesterday, but how much less? He missed training camp, he hasn’t played yet this year, he had off-season surgery, he has a new head coach, he has a new QB (Orton, who I think sucks, but in any case Orton is not as good a QB as Cutler was) and he’s admitted that he doesn’t know the playbook.
In short, Marshall is a huge gamble right now, no matter where you take him. IF – and that’s a big if – he gets his shit together, he COULD be one of the top receivers in a PPR league. But on draft day, you have to know that the guy is gonna be on the field if you draft him in the top 100. With Marshall you simply don’t know as of today. Watch the news and read the latest updates before drafting him.
Another example is the RBBC that Tampa Bay announced this week. WTF? They are planning on a 2-2-1 split of carries between the top 3 running backs. At this moment that would mean that Graham would get 2 carries, Ward would get 2 carries, and Williams would get 1, because that’s the order of their depth chart. I still think that Ward has the most fantasy value in a PPR league, but all of them are devalued because of the decision. But where do they rank today? Below is my best estimate. (I really like Cadillac Williams, and I hope he can stay healthy, but there’s no way he’s in the top 100 as of today.)
You’ll note that this order doesn’t line up perfectly with my individual position rankings from last week. It’s close in most cases, but while I took those into account, I tried to make this list as up to date as possible, so some players have moved up and some have moved down. I’ll probably update this sometime before next weekend, because I’m guessing most fantasy drafts will be Labor Day weekend. Mine are.
Enjoy!
| 1 | Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | JAX |
| 2 | Steven Jackson | RB | STL |
| 3 | Matt Forte | RB | CHI |
| 4 | Chris Johnson | RB | TEN |
| 5 | Ladainian Tomlinson | RB | SD |
| 6 | Adrian Peterson | RB | MIN |
| 7 | DeAngelo Williams | RB | CAR |
| 8 | Andre Johnson | WR | HOU |
| 9 | Larry Fitzgerald | WR | ARI |
| 10 | Frank Gore | RB | SF |
| 11 | Steve Slaton | RB | HOU |
| 12 | Calvin Johnson | WR | DET |
| 13 | Randy Moss | WR | NE |
| 14 | Reggie Bush | RB | NO |
| 15 | Clinton Portis | RB | WAS |
| 16 | Michael Turner | RB | ATL |
| 17 | Kevin Smith | RB | DET |
| 18 | Marshawn Lynch | RB | BUF |
| 19 | Brian Westbrook | RB | PHI |
| 20 | Drew Brees | QB | NO |
| 21 | Marion Barber | RB | DAL |
| 22 | Ronnie Brown | RB | MIA |
| 23 | Tom Brady | QB | NE |
| 24 | Anquan Boldin | WR | ARI |
| 25 | Marques Colston | WR | NO |
| 26 | Peyton Manning | QB | IND |
| 27 | Reggie Wayne | WR | IND |
| 28 | Greg Jennings | WR | GB |
| 29 | Pierre Thomas | RB | NO |
| 30 | Roddy White | WR | ATL |
| 31 | Wes Welker | WR | NE |
| 32 | T.J. Houshmandzadeh | WR | SEA |
| 33 | Steve Smith | WR | CAR |
| 34 | Jason Witten | TE | DAL |
| 35 | Brandon Jacobs | RB | NYG |
| 36 | Chad Ochocinco | WR | CIN |
| 37 | Kurt Warner | QB | ARI |
| 38 | Knowshon Moreno | RB | DEN |
| 39 | Antonio Gates | TE | SD |
| 40 | Terrell Owens | WR | BUF |
| 41 | Philip Rivers | QB | SD |
| 42 | Ryan Grant | RB | GB |
| 43 | Matt Schaub | QB | HOU |
| 44 | Vincent Jackson | WR | SD |
| 45 | Felix Jones | RB | DAL |
| 46 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB |
| 47 | Joseph Addai | RB | IND |
| 48 | Donovan McNabb | QB | PHI |
| 49 | Dwayne Bowe | WR | KC |
| 50 | DeSean Jackson | WR | PHI |
| 51 | Donald Brown | RB | IND |
| 52 | Dallas Clark | TE | IND |
| 53 | Thomas Jones | RB | NYJ |
| 54 | Ray Rice | RB | BAL |
| 55 | Braylon Edwards | WR | CLE |
| 56 | Darren McFadden | RB | OAK |
| 57 | Roy Williams | WR | DAL |
| 58 | LenDale White | RB | TN |
| 59 | Bernard Berrian | WR | MIN |
| 60 | Derrick Ward | RB | TB |
| 61 | Larry Johnson | RB | KC |
| 62 | Jonathan Stewart | RB | CAR |
| 63 | Cedric Benson | RB | CIN |
| 64 | Chris Cooley | TE | WAS |
| 65 | Brandon Marshall | WR | DEN |
| 66 | Tony Gonzalez | TE | ATL |
| 67 | Darren Sproles | RB | SD |
| 68 | Lee Evans | WR | BUF |
| 69 | Kellen Winslow | TE | TB |
| 70 | Jamal Lewis | RB | CLE |
| 71 | Kevin Walter | WR | HOU |
| 72 | Matt Ryan | QB | ATL |
| 73 | Willie Parker | RB | PIT |
| 74 | Julius Jones | RB | SEA |
| 75 | Santonio Holmes | WR | PIT |
| 76 | Leon Washington | RB | NYJ |
| 77 | Jerricho Cotchery | WR | NYJ |
| 78 | Anthony Gonzalez | WR | IND |
| 79 | Chris Wells | RB | ARI |
| 80 | Donnie Avery | WR | STL |
| 81 | Chester Taylor | RB | MIN |
| 82 | Santana Moss | WR | WAS |
| 83 | Chris Henry | WR | CIN |
| 84 | Carson Palmer | QB | CIN |
| 85 | Steve Breaston | WR | ARI |
| 86 | Lance Moore | WR | NO |
| 87 | Fred Jackson | RB | BUF |
| 88 | Eddie Royal | WR | DEN |
| 89 | Nate Burleson | WR | SEA |
| 90 | Laveranues Coles | WR | CIN |
| 91 | Matt Cassel | QB | KC |
| 92 | Antonio Bryant | WR | TB |
| 93 | Devin Hester | WR | CHI |
| 94 | Percy Harvin | WR | MIN |
| 95 | Josh Morgan | WR | SF |
| 96 | Earnest Graham | RB | TB |
| 97 | Torry Holt | WR | JAX |
| 98 | Kevin Faulk | RB | NE |
| 99 | Matt Hasselbeck | QB | SEA |
| 100 | Derrick Mason | WR | BAL |
Well, what do you think?
gk
Filed under: Fantasy, Sports Tagged: | 2009, Fantasy Football, Football, NFL, ppr, PPR league, ranking
I like the list overall. I’m really happy to see that someone FINALLY didn’t have Adrien Peterson in the Top 3. I just don’t get why people keep putting him there unless they seriously believe he’s going to run for 2,000 yards and score 12+ TDs. My league is going PPR for the first time this year, so I hope someone is uninformed and pulls the trigger with AP #1. If I had to critique, I think R. Bush is too high, as is P. Thomas (there’s talk of sharing carried three ways with M. Bell), while R. Rice is too low (he’s now the man in Baltimore).
And as far as B. Marshall is concerned, I’d certainly take him if I had a pick in the 90s overall. I think one distinction to make is the different between a guy that scores 160 pts total in 16 games vs a guy who scores 160 pts in 10-12 games (ie B. Marshall or B. Westbrook). The second guy is MUCH more valuable because you can supplement his missed games with one of your bench players.
Good points Tom. I literally laughed out loud when I read your comment about AP. As I mentioned here (http://www.effor.com/blog/index.php/2009/08/15/fantasy-football-201) PPR is a different world, and Peterson is NOT #1 in a PPR league. In the earlier post I said:
“Adrian Peterson is a great running back, and he is going to be one of the top 3 picks in basically every draft this year. Last year “All Day” led the NFL with 1757 rushing yards on 364 attempts. He also caught 21 passes for another 125 yards. He scored 10 touchdowns. And he finished 9th among running backs in PPR leagues!
Here is a list of running backs who scored more points in PPR leagues last year than Peterson. In order they are: Williams, Forte, Turner, Jones-Drew, (Thomas) Jones, Tomlinson, Slaton, and Westbrook.” You can read the entire post at the link above, but AP’s not in my top 3.
The only reason I have Bush that high is because (as you alluded to with Marshall and Westbrook) when he’s playing, he’s gold. He was the number 1 scorer in my PPR league last year when he got hurt, as he was before he got hurt in 2007. I haven’t dropped Thomas down yet because I’ve seen Bell play, and I don’t believe he’s good enough to take many touches away from the Bush/Thomas timeshare. But I’ll be watching to see if there’s anything to change my mind.
gk
Another question for you Gary. Would your rankings change (ie more value on WRs) if you knew you were in a 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE league (emphasis on the 3WR)?
P.S. Since this is my first go-around with PPR, I’ll probably be posting on your blog quite regularly up until my draft over Labor Day.
These rankings were put together with a 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex league in mind, with the flex being either a RB/WR. As a result, there’s a pretty even split between RB/WR in my top 100, because every team will need about the same amount of each.
Since every team in your league will need a 3rd WR every week, you should definitely increase the relative weight of the WR’s over the RB’s. You’d almost certainly want to get a third WR before you pick up a third RB, possibly before you get your 2nd RB – depending on how the draft goes.