As I admitted in an earlier post, I’m now hooked on fantasy football. Damn near every night I find myself searching the web to see who has updated player rankings and average draft positions - never mind that it’s way to early to do any of it, so it’s basically meaningless right now.
It’s too early because no one has even played a preseason game yet. There’s no way to know who will be the starting running back for Team A or who will be the number one receiver for Team B. But I still can’t resist putting together my draft cheat sheet. And tweaking it. Almost daily.
I know it’ll be totally re-done by the time draft day in my league rolls around, but I keep talking to myself, saying things like “if the draft were held today, I’d go with…”
Anyway, I ran across this article on NFL.com tonight. It talks about the various draft strategies that can be used during your fantasy draft, and the pros and cons of each of them.
Last year I did a classic RB, RB, WR, WR draft, and it worked out fairly well. I was picking 6th in a 12 team league, and I got Reggie Bush in round 1, Ronnie Brown in #2, Reggie Wayne #3, and Randy Moss #4. I’m in a PPR league, so Bush and Brown both had decent numbers (until Brown got hurt), but I rode Moss and Wayne to the championship.
I doubt that I’ll be able to get Moss in the 4th round this year, so I probably need to change my strategy. I don’t know what I’ll do yet – I change my mind damn near every night – but I’m thinking about something like RB, WR, RB, WR this year.
There’s no way I can see taking a WR or QB in the first round. Starting RB’s that aren’t platooned are too rare, and if I have a chance for a stud RB in the first round, I gotta grab one.
I’d love to take another RB in round 2, but I think the consistent studs will probably be gone by then. So I’m seriously considering taking a WR in round 2. I could probably get someone like Wayne, TO, Edwards or Johnson (either Andre or Chad) and there should still be plenty of platooned RB’s available in round 3.
On the other hand, I could get a top tier QB or TE in round 3, and wait until 4 to get a platooned RB – but the WR pool is getting thinner by the 5th round, so I’d be really weak at that position. Crap, I have no clue what I’ll do.
Anyway, I love the advice at the end of the NFL.com article above. They say And finally, the bottom line about kickers and defense: Use anything but your last pick on a kicker and you deserve to finish in last place. The only defense even partially worth investing a mid-round pick on would be the Vikings. Otherwise that should be your second-to-last pick.
Last year was my first playing fantasy football, and I picked the Bears DST in round 5. Since I got lucky with Moss in round 4, I still did ok, but taking a defense – any defense – in round 5 was (and is) really dumb. Don’t do it. Ever.
Hopefully I’ll find a good sleeper or two in the later rounds to make up for the inevitable busts and injuries that will happen during the year. I have some ideas on QB’s and WR’s who I think may break out this year – and hopefully they’ll be available in the mid to late rounds.
If I get lucky and 1) Get them in later rounds; 2) They actually break out and produce; I could stash a great stock of RB’s and TE’s in the earlier rounds….
But that’s going by the rankings and ADP today…. Which are meaningless…. So I’m right back where I started…. Damn Fantasy Football! I wish the season was starting tomorrow!
Filed under: Sports Tagged: | draft strategy, Fantasy Football, FFL
