NFL Fantasy Week 12

11 weeks have gone by in the NFL so far this year, and I’m lucky enough to be 11-0 in my 12 team PPR fantasy league.  I don’t know how, because both Steven Jackson and Reggie Bush (my leading scorers through the first 7 weeks) have been out since week 8….

Anyway, our playoffs start next week so just one more win and I’ll be undefeated in the regular season.  I’ve had the #1 playoff seed locked up for a couple of weeks, so I’ve been making roster adjustments based on matchups in weeks 13 and 14.  Nothing major, just tweaking.

Things like picking up dropping kicker Matt Prater and picking Matt Bryant because Bryant has indoors cream puff matchups against Detroit and New Orleans the next 2 weeks, dropping WR Mark Bradley and picking up RB Antonio Pittman since Jackson may be out through the end of our playoffs, and dropping RB Chester Taylor and picking up WR Donnie Avery for some depth at WR.

I hope I can pull out a win this week and go undefeated but I’m doubtful of that.  Both Bush and Jackson are still out (well, Bush MAY play, but I probably won’t start him the first week back because who knows how much work he’ll get) and both Roddy White and Calvin Johnson are listed as questionable this week.

My WR’s have carried me this year.  I have Boldin (picked up in a trade for Housh the week after Boldin was injured), Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, and Donnie Avery.  We can start 3 WR’s and 2 RB’s, or 2 WR’s and 3 RB’s, so I need at least 2 healthy – and preferably 3.  In a PPR league, very few RB’s score more points than good WR’s – a lesson it seems some in my league haven’t yet learned.  They insist on starting 3 RB’s even when they have good WR’s on their bench.

For RB’s, I have the aforementioned Jackson and Bush, plus Antonio Pittman, Pierre Thomas, and Chris Johnson.  Johnson really came through for me a few times early in the year, but he hasn’t done much the past 2 weeks.  And he’s going against the Jets 4th ranked rushing defense this week.

That brings me to my main point for this week.  Look at your match ups!  Almost everyone on my team is going against tough defenses this week, so I don’t know what to expect.  Here are some examples:

  • White is facing the Panther’s 6th ranked passing defense.
  • Calvin Johnson has Tampa Bay and their 3rd ranked passing D.
  • Boldin – and my QB Warner – have the Giants 4th ranked passing defense.
  • Pierre Thomas (or possibly Bush) have the #1 ranked Green Bay rushing defense to face.
  • Chris Johnson has the 4th ranked Jets rushing defense.
  • Pittman has the 6th ranked Bears rushing defense.
  • Antonio Gates is facing the Colt’s 5th ranked passing defense.

So my choices are pretty limited – especially since both White and Calvin Johnson are listed as questionable as I write this on Friday night.

I think I’m going to need about 105 points to win this week.  My team has averaged about 130 points per week this year, with 169 being the high in week 8, and 120 the low in week 1.  But because all my guys are facing tough defenses this week, I think this will be my lowest scoring week of the year.  Here’s how I hope to get 105 points this week.

My best guess is that Warner and Boldin will be fine – I’m expecting 20 to 25 points from both of them.  Say 45 points combined.

Calvin Johnson is another must start if he plays.  He always seems to get at least 15 points and he has the potential for a monster game every week – no matter who tries to cover him.  He’s plain awesome – imagine what he could do with a real QB throwing the ball to him!  I’m hoping for 15 points.

Roddy White is another WR who always seems to score in double digits no matter who the opposition is.  He has a “deep back bruise” whatever that is, but if he plays he’s money.  Another 15 points.

Donnie Avery is my backup at WR this week if either White or Johnson don’t play.  He should have a nice game against the Bears 30th ranked passing defense – if Bulger can stay upright long enough to throw it to him.  But I expect 15 points from him – with the possibility of a bigger game if he can break one or two for a touchdown.

So between Warner, Boldin, and Johnson/White/Avery (pick 2 depending on who starts) I’m hoping for 75 points.  My RB’s Thomas, Johnson, and Pittman (again pick 2) suck this week, and I may be hoping for too much to expect 15 points combined.

That would bring me to 90 points, meaning I need another 15 to 20 points from my TE (Gates), kicker (Bryant) and defense (Tennessee).  With any luck, Gates will get 10 points, Bryant will get 7, and the Titans D will get 5.  That would put me at 112 points, and I hope that’s enought to win!

Good luck to all this week,

gk

Share

One Response

  1. […] I managed to squeak by with a win last week – as I predicted based on the matchups, it was my lowest scoring week of the year – just 99 points.  But I made it to my Fantasy Football […]

%d bloggers like this: