NFL Fantasy Week 13

Ok, I managed to squeak by with a win last week – as I predicted based on the matchups, it was my lowest scoring week of the year – just 99 points.  But I made it to my Fantasy Football League’s playoffs undefeated at 12-0.

Another tough test this week though, because both Reggie Bush and Stephen Jackson are now expected to play – which isn’t as good of news as it should be.  I HATE starting a player who’s been out for a few weeks on their first week back.  Plus, both Bush and Jackson are up against tough rushing defenses this week.

Note – All the point projections below are based on PPR scoring.

Except for Bush and Jackson, most of the rest of my team have decent match ups in Week 13.  That’s good, because I think it’s gonna take 130+ points to beat my opponent this week.

Chris Johnson is going against the hapless rushing defense of the Lions.  I’m expecting over 100 yards rushing, at least 3 catches for 20 to 30 yards, and a touchdown (or two!) from him this week.  With any luck White won’t steal the touchdowns as he shot off his mouth this week and Jeff Fisher isn’t known for putting up with that type of behavior.  About 20 to 25 points total.

What can I say about Anquan Boldin that hasn’t been said?  He’s The Man this year and I don’t expect that to change this week.  6 catches for 80 plus yards and at least 1 score.  He’s scored 20 or more points every week since his injury (5 consecutive weeks!) and I don’t see any reason for him to stop that streak this week.  20 plus points for Boldin this week.

The same goes for Warner.  He should get close to 300 yards again, and 2 or 3 TD’s.  20 to 25 points.  I’ve gotten very addicted to Warner and Boldin combining for about 45 points every week!

NFL.com is projecting Roddy White to get 26 points in my league.  Even though he’s playing a very bad San Diego passing D, I think that’s too much.  I’m hoping for 20 points from him.

As always, the biggest gamble on my team is Calvin Johnson.  He’s a stud – but he has no one around to help him.  He’s caught TD passes from Kitna, Orlovsky, and Culpepper this year.  He’s number 6 in scoring among WR’s in my league.  But I still don’t trust him because the opposition should triple-cover him on every play.  Detroit has no one else to throw it to – they’ve got to keep going to Megatron.

Somehow he just keeps catching passes and scoring touchdowns.  He’s been amazingly consistent, scoring 15 or more points in all but 3 games this year, but I can’t shake the nagging feeling that he’s going to get shut out one of these weeks.  And he’s going against the Titans this week, so nothing will be easy.

If I was coaching Detroit, at least once – and maybe twice – in every offensive series I’d call a play like this:  Calvin go deep.  Culpepper throw it high and as far as you can in Calvin’s direction, he’ll be there. Maybe he catches 20% of them, 60% of them drop incomplete, and you get picked 20% of the time – who cares?  You’re 0-11 for God’s sake!  Give it a shot and you could score 30 points a game!  Count the interceptions as 50 yard punts.  What have you got to lose?

I know Detroit isn’t on national TV very often, but everyone should watch Calvin Johnson play Thursday.  He’s a freak.  He’s bigger and faster than TO, and he can jump like Randy Moss – and he’s got great hands to boot!  Just imagine the points he would put on the board in Denver, San Diego, New Orleans, – or even Miami or Tampa Bay.  Note to the Lions – GET HIM THE BALL!

All that being said, I think he’ll get about 5 catches for 80 yards and a score.  15 to 20 points.

If you’re keeping score, the players I mentioned above should total about 100 points.  I think I’ll need about 30 more….

Antonio Gates is another crap shoot.  He can get 20 points – or 2.  I’ll hope (and settle) for 10.  I seriously thought about starting Bo Scaife this week, but I think the Titans will be able to run all over the Lions, so Collins won’t be throwing very much.  Gates is the safer play.

Matt Bryant is kicking against the Saints this week.  New Orleans is close to the bottom (26th) in points allowed, so Bryant should get some field goals and a few XP’s.  10 points.

The Titans defense should rack up some points this week, with bunch of sacks on Culpepper and a pick or four.  I think Detroit will score (if they can get the ball to Megatron) but maybe I can get 7 to 10 points out of them.

That puts me at 125 to 130 points.  But I haven’t talked about my second RB yet.  That’s because right now I have no fucking clue who it’ll be!

If Bush is out, I’ll probably go with Pierre Thomas.  If Bush plays, he’ll probably be too limited to get many points – but he’ll take points away from Thomas….

I currently have Justin Fargas in my lineup, but I can’t shake the feeling that he’s not gonna get a lot of carries now that McFadden is healthy.  But Oakland is going against KC, so there may be enough rushing yards for both.

The other option is Stephen Jackson.  As of right now (11:55 pm ET Wednesday) he’s expected to play this week.  But will he be limited his first week back?  He’s also going against a good Miami rushing defense.  That hasn’t stopped NFL.com from projecting 21 points for him though!  I just don’t see that happening.

So I’m hoping whoever (Bush, Thomas, Fargas, or Jackson) I end up starting, that they get me 10 to 15 points.  Fortunately they all play on Sunday, so I probably won’t decide until just before 1pm on Sunday.  I’ll read a lot between now and then (especially the local New Orleans and St Louis papers) and watch the pregame shows to see what the pro’s think, but I think it’ll come down to a gut call at the deadline.

So with any luck at all, I’ll get about 135 points.  After looking through my opponent’s lineup (McNabb, Ronnie Brown, Hillis, Fitzgerald, Wayne, Lance Moore, Cooley, Elam, and Bucs DST) I think he’ll get about 120 points – although Brown could easily go off against a pitiful Rams rushing D.  Brown could get 40 points instead of 20 and make this whole exercise meaningless.

But I’m doing my best to put the best possible lineup out there, because all that matters in the end is if I win or lose.  Just win baby!

gk

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One Response

  1. Just a quick followup to week 13. I lost. Boldin and Warner and Gates all let me down. My opponent got 135 points because McNabb and Fitzgerald went off, and my team didn’t get it done, scoring only 116 points. So I went undefeated in the regular season, only to lose in the first round of the playoffs…. Ouch – that hurts!

    The preseason starts now!

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